Is The U.S. Dollar At A Crucial Level?

The state of the economy is still critical in the U.S., but few signs of hope are beginning the shine here and there. The housing market, as an example, is meeting various levels of support, despite inventories staying at plethoric level. An important week has started for the U.S. dollar. The short term trend is on the downside against major currencies, but key support lines must now be overcome.

U.S.: housing leading the way?

The U.S. trade deficit declined again in February and it is now at USD 25.97 billion from USD 36.2 billion in January. It was the smallest level since 1999 with exports increasing 1.6% (-16.9% compared to one year ago) and imports declining 5.1% (-28.8% compared to one year ago). The state of the U.S. economy stays extremely critical, albeit few gimps of hope are beginning to shine here and there. In the FOMC minutes of last week, Fed officials narrowed growth expectations this year, as the weak labor market is undermining consumes, and forecasted that a rebound will only take place in 2010. In effect, the number of people unemployed declined only marginally to 654,000 from 674,000 in the week ending April 4. As a result, the Fed might keep interest rates low for this year, and maybe for part of 2010 as well, but a different approach could be needed when the economy will start to move again.